Random Thoughts: Chinese biz, exercise, economics

As usual it has been an interesting week… no one can ever accuse my life of being boring. But I suppose, in comparison to most weeks, this week has been a bit more subdued.

I have mostly just been doing some work, doing a lot of research/reading and hitting the gym every day, trying to get in decent shape. Actually ran 5 miles on the treadmill yesterday… hey maybe i’ll go for the half marathon on the treadmill sometime soon, i feel up to it! Besides, Siu Yin, my Dad and others make me feel like an out of shape loser running their marathons and half marathons… and my dad is over 60!

So, my business dealings with the Chinese movie guy is as always bizarre. I really only understand about 1/3 of what he says as his engrish is very broken and it will still be a while til I am fluent in Cantonese and Putonwah (Mandarin… no one here calls Mandarin Mandarin… they call it Putonwah.. if you say Mandarin they will look at you like you are from outer space, or Saskatchewan).

The guy mostly just smokes and smiles and every now and then tells me he likes me… then we go out for snake and thats about it. To give you an idea of what some of our conversations are like, here is one from today:

Him: Hey Jeff… Jeff… change?
Jeff: change?
Him: u no like change?
Jeff: no, I like change… I guess it depends what it is that changes though (thinking, if I “change” from being healthy to being a quadrapalegic, I don’t like that kind of change)
Him: Ok ok ok, let me for example. for example I come in… I say 1. E’ry day… 1… 1… 1… ok. now maybe you think 3! 3… 3…. now 3! Some people stay at 1 their whole life. I WANT WHOLE THING! Ok, lets go for snake.

Ya, that is generally how every conversation is. My head hurts from nodding so much, but I am not nodding with understanding, it is because in my head I am thinking, “I have got to find a way to leave soon… soon”

Ha, I might be making it sound worse than it is… its just that so many convo’s are like that, it is really difficult to know whether he is insane or if he just can’t communicate well in Engrish.

Then afterwards we hop in his $100,000 BMW, pump up sappy loud cantonese music and pour into traffic like we are the only ones on the road, which we definitely aren’t as the street is packed with people walking, bicycles, motorcycles and taxis… he doesn’t seem to notice most of them though as they all go smashing off the side of the road as he drives…

Anyway, whatever, we’ll see how it goes.

On a COMPLETELY different topic, I want to pass on a bit of info about economics… I know many of you don’t follow the financial world too closely but we are reaching a point where I feel I need to tell anyone who I know, so they can protect themselves.

I have been studying/playing the markets for many years… in general I usually do fairly well, but from time to time I don’t do that well (I rarely lose… if I don’t do well it usually means I just didn’t make any money that year). But these years have helped me to really figure out what really is going on as I spend a lot of extra time researching during those years! Those years, btw, were 2000 when I totally didn’t expect the internet bubble to burst as badly as it did… I thought it would go down… by maybe 40% or $60%… not 99.5%… and I didn’t make a heck of a lot of money last year because I was a little too quick to short the US market and gold stocks were flat last year.

HOWEVER, I don’t think I have ever been so confident of anything than I am now, especially after all these years of putting together all the pieces on why I was right and why I was wrong on certain things.

I don’t want to put too much here as many of you don’t care about the details, but I will say this. We are heading into what will be a very difficult next 5-10 years… the Great Depression may, in hindsight, look like something we only wish had happened. Almost all paper currencies (US Dollar, Euro, etc) are now so out of control, especially the USD, that there is no turning back now and they will fizzle into worthlessness very quickly (as quickly as possibly 5 years or less… although it could take 10-15)…

The main way to profit/save your money is to buy gold (physical gold, gold mutual funds, gold funds, gold stocks etc)… You may have noticed that gold is up quite a bit in the last 2 years… it was actually $250 in 2000… it was around $400 18 months ago, and it is at $550 today… but this is just the beginning. Gold is still very very very cheap compared to almost every single asset class out there. I would urge you to buy at least some right now and just buy some on a regular basis for the coming years (like every month). Also buy some silver… and some oil. A mix of 60% gold, 25% oil, 15% silver would probably work best.

If you are thinking, Jeff is crazy, at least take ALL your money out of the ‘general’ stock market… and DEFINITELY anything in the US, take out… and get out of US dollars in the next 6 months or so. If you want to be REALLY conservative and don’t believe me, get out of all non-gold/silver/commodity/oil stocks and bonds (except short term bonds, under 1 year that you can hold to maturity), if you want to hold currency, diversify into CDN dollar and the best ‘currency’ to hold for next few years is Japanese Yen and Chinese RMB. And, no matter what, have a MINIMUM of 15-20% of your holdings by the summer of this year in gold/silver/oil… just trust me. Gold will likely see $10,000+ per ounce in next few years ($550 now).

If you want to be aggressive, your portfolio should look like 50% gold, 15% oil and 15% silver by summer of this year, with the remainder in cash (preferably CDN or Yen). if you own real estate that has appreciated a LOT, consider selling and renting for next 2 years, then buy back 40-60% cheaper… especially if it is a condo.. house prices may do a little better. (or not as bad i mean)

The US is completely beyond bankruptcy and most of the smart people in the world know it, they are just waiting for the right time to pull the plug on them… they are spending their US dollars on hard assets in the meantime (see China’s purchasing of resource/oil/mining companies around the world etc).

This will happen a lot faster than you think is possible because it has spiralled downward so much in the last few years that it is at a level that it cannot be stopped now, and the speeds will continue to get faster and faster.

Anyway, don’t mean to sound like a doomsdayer… in fact, if you follow some of my advice, it won’t be doomsday… with the cash (gold) you have you can likely easily buy an island or two and get away from what will be mainly chaos and destitution for the majority of the masses who never caught on to the mess that is currently unfolding… btw, when EVERYONE you talk to (I mean bus drivers, waiters etc) tells you to buy gold, that may be when we sell… but that is a few years away yet.